DECODE THE MONTH

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  CBS LINE

Volume 4(7)

🏛️ ECONOMIC POLICY

    🏦 RBI keeps repo rate unchanged at 5.25% – policy remains cautious amid inflation risks.

    💵 RBI attracts over $20.7B in foreign currency inflows through special FCNR(B), ECB and bond measures, strengthening India's external position.

    💰 RBI says macro fundamentals remain strong, but warns weak monsoon and West Asia tensions could hurt growth.

    👉 Do this: Keep emergency savings ready and expect interest rates to stay elevated for now.

💳 FINANCIAL MARKET

    💸 Rupee weakens to near record lows, becoming one of Asia's weakest-performing currencies in July.

    🏦 RBI limits intervention, allowing the rupee to move more with market forces while preserving forex reserves.

    👉 Do this: If you're planning overseas education, travel, or imports, budget for a weaker rupee

🌍 INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS

    🛢️ India continues buying large volumes of Russian crude, helping contain energy costs despite geopolitical tensions.

    ⚠️ West Asia tensions remain a major risk for oil prices and global trade.

    👉 Do this: Businesses should diversify suppliers and prepare for shipping and fuel price volatility.

📊 MACRO UPDATE

    📈 Retail inflation rises to 4.38% in June data, moving above the RBI's 4% target after 17 months.

    🌧️ Uneven monsoon and food prices remain key inflation risks.

    📊 Balance of payments outlook improves as strong foreign inflows support India's external finances.

    👉 Do this: Control discretionary spending, reduce high-interest debt, and expect food and fuel costs to stay volatile.

Roshni Thayyil

Msc Econometrics and Financial Technology

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