DECODE THE MONTH

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  CBS LINE

Volume 4(8)

🏛️ ECONOMIC POLICY

    🏦 RBI holds repo rate at 5.25% – maintains a neutral stance amid global uncertainty.

    📈 FY27 GDP forecast raised to 6.7% – stronger domestic demand and manufacturing activity support growth.

    📉 FY27 inflation forecast trimmed to 5.0%, but food and fuel prices remain a risk.

    💵 RBI attracted nearly $73B in foreign inflows through special schemes, strengthening external finances.

    👉 Do this: Fixed-income investors can lock current rates. Keep an emergency fund ready as inflation risks remain.

💳 FINTECH AND BANKING

    🤖 RBI pushes AI adoption in banking, emphasizing responsible and resilient use of artificial intelligence.

    💳 Digital lending and data-based credit continue expanding, with GST and transaction data becoming more important for loan approvals.

    📱 RBI strengthens oversight of digital lending apps to protect consumers from fraud.

    👉 Do this: Keep GST records, bank statements, and digital transactions clean—they are becoming your financial identity

🌍 INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS

    🛢️ India continues record Russian oil imports, helping manage energy costs.

    ⚠️ West Asia tensions and global trade uncertainty remain major risks for oil prices and shipping costs.

    🌍 Global uncertainty persists, but India's domestic economy remains resilient.

    👉 Do this: Businesses should diversify suppliers and prepare for fuel-price volatility.

📊 MACRO UPDATE

    📊 Retail inflation rises to 4.45% in July – second straight month above RBI's 4% target. Food inflation at 5.52%.

    🌧️ Weak monsoon and El Niño risks could push food prices higher.

    💰 Banking liquidity surplus rises sharply, and markets expect RBI to absorb excess cash.

    💸 Rupee stabilizes after heavy foreign inflows, following weakness earlier in the year.

    👉 Do this: Reduce high-interest debt, budget for higher food expenses, and avoid overleveraging.

Roshni Thayyil

Msc Econometrics and Financial Technology

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